Why Cost Databases Don't Work for Site-Specific Estimates

RSMeans and Gordian compile regional cost averages. But two parcels in the same city can have wildly different costs due to soil, seismic zone, slope, and flood risk.

What Drives Site-Specific Variation

Foundation costs: $8-$15/sqft (good soil) vs $25-$50+/sqft (expansive clay). Seismic design: 8-15% structural cost premium. Earthwork: negligible to $30/sqft. Flood zone: $15-$40/sqft premium.

How ML Differs

Site-specific features, non-linear interaction effects, P10/P50/P90 confidence intervals, continuous learning.

When to Use What

Cost databases for detailed line-item budgets. ML models for site screening and risk quantification.