Construction Cost Prediction: How ML Models Beat Rules of Thumb

Why $/sqft averages fail and how ML models produce better predictions.

The Problem with $/sqft Averages

Regional averages miss site conditions, seismic categories, labor markets, lot geometry, and regulatory burden.

How ML-Based Cost Prediction Works

Gradient-boosted ensembles learn non-linear relationships from thousands of actual construction projects.

Why Confidence Intervals Matter

P10/P50/P90 bounds quantify cost uncertainty for better feasibility decisions.

Conformal Prediction

Distribution-free method with 92-96% empirical coverage on holdout validation.